Why the Midpoint of the College Basketball Season Matters More Than You Think

Curious what Thursday, Jan. 8, represents on the college basketball calendar? It’s Day 67, the exact midpoint of the regular season.

We get 66 days of college hoops goodness from Nov. 3 through Jan. 7, then we get 66 more from Jan. 9 through Selection Sunday. Considering conference play is barely underway, it feels like there should be plenty of time left for middling power conference schools to get their NCAA Tournament resumes together, right?

Wrong.

For the most part, it’s already too late. Teams build their reputations during the first half and then hold on in the second half.

Here's what we mean.

Let’s go back to Jan. 9, 2025, which was last season’s midpoint.

Let’s review the NET rankings as that day dawned:

1. Auburn
2. Duke
3. Tennessee
4. Houston
5. Florida

Huh.

There go our four No. 1 seeds (and our Final Four field) and the No. 6 seed overall (Tennessee).

As we keep scrolling, we need to go all the way to No. 20 Pitt to find a team that didn’t make the 2025 NCAA Tournament — and the Panthers required a historic collapse to accomplish this. Starting with a Jan. 7 loss at Duke, they lost 13 of their final 18 games.

As we keep scrolling, we can find only four or five more schools who we can suggest played their way out of the Tournament:

No. 30 Ohio State (which suffered a 2-point home loss to Oregon on Midpoint Day to trigger a 7-10 finish)
No. 34 West Virginia (a bubble team that had a good argument for a bid)
No. 35 Cincinnati (which went 8-11 after Midpoint Day)
No. 38 Nebraska (lost six of its final seven games to miss the Big Ten tournament entirely, which caused the league to change its rules and let everybody in this year)
And perhaps No. 45 SMU (cursed by the ACC’s meh-ness)

If we agree those five teams played their way out during the second half of the season, then who played their way in?

No. 67 New Mexico (which won the Mountain West regular-season crown)
No. 66 Xavier (won its final seven regular-season games)
No. 57 Creighton (won its first nine games after Midpoint Day)
No. 48 BYU (won final eight regular-season games)
No. 47 Arkansas and No. 46 Oklahoma (both part of the historically awesome SEC)

(By the way, this wasn’t just a 2025 thing. On the morning of Jan. 11, 2024, you have to scroll down to No. 23 Oklahoma to find the first team in the NET rankings not to make the NCAAs. On the morning of Jan. 9, 2023, No. 14 Ohio State and No. 20 Rutgers, which suffered a major injury, were the top two teams not to qualify for the NCAAs.)

So what’s the lesson here, aside from maybe don’t be Ohio State?

The top 20 teams in the NET as of Thursday morning should feel pretty great about their chances to reach the NCAA Tournament. That’s not such a revelation for the power-conference schools, but it’s something nice for No. 20 Utah State (13-1) to know.

The second 20 teams also should feel pretty good. As long as teams like No. 29 Saint Louis (13-1 before Wednesday night’s game at VCU) don’t screw up too badly in the second half, they can start making March Madness plans.

But there’s no way Saint Louis coach Josh Schertz will read this and believe the Billikens are most of their way to their first NCAA bid since 2019.

Why not?

Because on Selection Sunday in 2024, Schertz’ Indiana State Sycamores stood at No. 28 in the NET — a seven-spot rise from Midpoint Day. They owned a 28-6 record. They lost the Missouri Valley Conference championship game by just 4.

And they got stiffed.

So, all you teams between Nos. 20-40 in the current NET? Feel free to keep winning during the second half.

You know, just in case this theory isn’t fool-proof.